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The Last Version Of Windows, The End of Checks And Other Small Business Tech Predictions for 2012

By Gene Marks | Forbes – Mon, Nov 21, 2011

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I saw my first 2011 Christmas ad on September 27, 2011.  It was for a car dealership too, of all things.  I know this because I wrote down the date.  Was I shocked?  Not at all.  For most small businesses the holiday season is our biggest opportunity to salvage what has been a pretty slow year.  So why not get a head start on it?  Why not start the holiday music on Halloween?  Why not watch a few weepy Hallmark movies with Kevin Sorbo or Elizabeth Berkley after the baseball game?  Good for them.

Because it makes me feel better to offer up my 2012 predictions for small business technology more than 5 weeks before 2011 is over.  If my local radio station can change their format to all-Christmas on November 1^st, then let’s just say I’m kicking off the prediction season too.

And before you read any further know this:  I predicted that the Phillies would win the World Series.  I predicted that Charlie Sheen would never give up his enormous Two and A Half Men paycheck.  I predicted that J. Edgar would be a great movie.

But those were just guesses.  Wrong guesses.  I feel more confident about technology. Particularly small business technology.   My company is a small business.  And we sell technology.   And we use this stuff all the time.  So here are a few predictions for 2012 which I can confidently make.

Of the four big social media outlets for small businesses: (Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn and Google+) 2012 will find me focusing my company’s time on Facebook and LinkedIn. After years of playing around with social media, most of my clients still haven’t found a way to make money (or at least not waste time) using these services.  Some have succeeded.  But most of my clients have found that investing in social media is like being forced to see Paranormal Activity 3...you know it won’t be as good as the others but you just can’t resist!  In 2012, our patience will reach its end.  We will decrease our use of some of these services and focus our efforts on one or maybe two.  The winners will be Facebook and LinkedIn.  Why?  Most of my friends are already on Facebook and I can actually explain what it does. (C’mon admit it:  you still can’t explain what Twitter is, can you?)   LinkedIn has been a valuable repository of resumes, with a little professional gossip thrown in.  And I like gossip. These are the services I’ll be focusing on in 2012.  I won’t be alone.

As social media usage consolidates, watch small businesses like mine gravitate more to video. For starters, it’s easier than ever to make videos now that our smartphones work almost like professional cameras.  Second, uploading and downloading videos has become faster as networks have become more powerful.  And finally....there’s this.  And this.  YouTube and Google are once again creating markets.  And the newest market will be for free TV online validated by celebrities on hundreds of YouTube channels.  If they haven’t already (and by the way, most people under 25 already have) embraced video for information, Google and YouTube are going to make sure this web based media is part of our daily vernacular.  And small businesses like mine, if we want to compete, will need to be part of this too.  2012 will be one of those years where we’re going to be talking seriously about video as a marketing and service need for our companies.

Cloud based applications will see a slowdown in growth. Now that the excitement has worn off, many small business owners are better understanding the pros and cons of cloud based applications.  For example, we sell Microsoft Dynamics CRM and it costs $44 per month per user for their online service.  That seems inexpensive, right?  But wait – that’s $5K per year for 10 people, or $25K over five years.  There are plenty of good, non-cloud based CRM systems (including an on-premise version of the Microsoft product) that you can buy out-right that costs much less over that same period of time.  And there’s more control over one’s data and potentially better security too.   Many of my clients are waking up to this.  They’re seeing cloud based apps as an interesting and potentially beneficial way to deliver their data.  Or not.  Some are considering using the cloud for infrastructure instead.
Infrastructure will replace apps in the cloud. IT firms are getting smarter.  They’re saying:  why rent a cloud app when your software is perfectly fine?  They’re telling us that, instead of paying them to send their unwashed hipster techs onsite to maintain our servers, why not just host it with them and let them do the work remotely?  Which is why we’re seeing an explosion in the growth of cloud based infrastructure services like Amazon’s EC2, Rackspace and cloud workspace companies.  As servers age and the need to upgrade becomes more pressing, many of my clients are looking to get rid of their hardware, security and software headaches altogether.  So why not let someone else do it all for them...in the cloud?  For small businesses in 2012, this will continue to become a much cheaper and easier alternative than replacing their existing software.
Mobile apps will stop being downloaded. You know how we chuckle at the ridiculously big “cordless” phone Jerry uses on re-runs of Seinfeld?  Starting in 2012 and within a few years we’ll be chuckling at mobile apps in the same way.  Think of it:  why do we have to “download” these apps so that they can synchronize with a server somewhere for updates and data?  It’s so 1992.  As wireless services increase in speed and reliability downloadable apps will be replaced by 100% web based mobile apps with no local footprint.  So if you’re thinking of developing an app for your business, you may want to build that prediction into your 2012 plans.

Mobile will assume a higher priority as part of our customer service. And most small business will be considering mobile apps in 2012...for their customers.  That’s because it’s becoming a software based world (I didn’t say that, Marc Andreessen said that).  And it’s cheap to write a mobile app.  And take an ad out on Craigslist looking for a mobile app developer and watch what you find:  tons of them.   A few even speak English too.  So why not have a mobile app for your customers?  Why can’t your customers check their order status, invoice history and whether or not you have inventory available from their mobile device?  Why can’t they access technical specs and safety data from their own personalized locker like I access my favorite Abba song from Amazon’s cloud player?  Yes, I listen to Abba, OK?  Why won’t you be making it easier for them to find you with a more mobile-friendly website (Google recently introduced a new service to help us do that too).  Who says your technicians can’t receive payments using their mobile phone to cut down on collection headaches?  Quietly but quickly, our customers have acquired millions of smartphones, tablets, and mini-micro-teeny-tiny-laptops over the past couple of years.  Now they want to use them – and small businesses will respond this year. Fewer of us will be writing checks in 2012. Speaking of cutting down our collection headaches, look for mobile payment solutions like Google Wallet to become a part of our world in 2012.  And it won't be just Google.  PayPal, Visa, MasterCard, American Express and other payment services continually roll out easier and quicker ways for us to pay our suppliers and receive payments from our customers online.  The process of loading checks on a printer, printing them, matching them with invoices, signing, stuffing, mailing and filing is just too time consuming and fraught with internal control holes (do you really think your bank is checking for two signatures? And when was the last time you did a bank reconciliation?).  Oh, and the postal service is going bust too.  The newest generation of entrepreneurs starting up companies look at check printing as a quaint reminder of American business as it once was:  inefficient and cumbersome.  Most of my bills will be paid online in 2012.  And I’ll increase my collections that way too.

Printing and document management will merge. Since I started my small business in 1994 I’ve struggled with printers that don’t work.  They disappear on my network, jam, and consume ink like my kids consume twenty dollar bills from my wallet.  But the technology has improved:  wireless printers now work reliably and a newer generation of machines use cloud based services to route documents from mobile devices to their destination via email.  Look for big makers of printers like HP and Brother to gobble up companies that excel in scanning and storing documentation for the ultimate solution:  a device for small businesses that prints, files and stores that can be accessed by anyone anywhere through the cloud for a couple of hundred bucks.

In 2012 we will see the final big launch of Windows. This year, Microsoft will likely release Windows 8.  Many of us wistfully remember the launch of new versions of Windows with more fondness than our own weddings (sorry, honey).  My God, didn’t the Stones perform to mark the introduction of Windows 95?   Windows 8 will be the end of those parties.  Going forward, Microsoft will continue to come out with new and innovative operating systems for computers and devices.  But, as operating systems become interchangeable in lieu of the functionality that a device delivers, we’ll come to expect that software makers like Microsoft, Apple and Google will just automatically deliver updates at 3AM so our devices continue to work better and better than the other guys.

2012 is expected to be another slow year in the economy.  And the pending resolution of healthcare reform and presidential elections are only adding to the uncertainty.  Don’t expect small businesses to be spending big on technology...yet.  But we’re making our plans.  And I’m betting a few of my predictions will be part of those plans.  Plus, after saying that I have fonder memories of Windows launches than my own wedding, I predict I’ll have some explaining to do too.

Besides Forbes, Gene Marks writes weekly for The New York Times and frequently for The Huffington Post and American City Business Journals. He runs a ten person consulting firm outside of Philadelphia and can be followed on Twitter.